METHODOLOGY
Methodology
How we verify, rate confidence, and label what we don’t yet know.
How We Verify
Every Signal is built from primary sourcing where possible, supplemented by secondary reporting from established outlets and open-source material such as satellite imagery, shipping data, and public records. We cross-check claims against at least one independent source before publishing, and we say so when we can’t.
Confidence Levels
Every Signal is labeled with one of three confidence levels: High, Medium, or Reported, Unconfirmed. High means multiple independent sources corroborate the claim. Medium means a single credible source or partial corroboration. Reported, Unconfirmed means the claim comes from a single report we have not independently verified. We do not assign numeric confidence percentages, because false precision is misleading.
You may encounter frameworks that assign intelligence-community-style numeric bands to source assessments — the Admiralty Code and ICD 203 scales are common examples. We don’t use these, for two reasons: a specific percentage implies a level of calibrated calculation we do not perform, and our sourcing quality varies story by story rather than being a fixed property of the outlet. Our High, Medium, and Reported, Unconfirmed labels are applied per Signal, by our own editors, based on the actual sourcing for that specific claim — not derived from a formula.
Confirmed vs. Unconfirmed
Every Signal states plainly whether its central claim is confirmed or unconfirmed, and updates when that status changes. Unconfirmed claims are never presented with the same certainty as confirmed ones, and we revisit unconfirmed Signals as new information arrives.
NAVVYASIGNAL
Signals-first reporting on intelligence, geopolitics, and frontier technology.